WEEKLY HOUSING & MACRO UPDATE

2026 Week 45 Update
WEEKLY HOUSING & MACRO UPDATE
Regional market trends, leading indicators, and last week's macroeconomic signals
Delivered weekly by your trusted real estate advisor — cutting through the noise with real data, real context, and real insight for buyers, sellers, and investors in the greater Seattle area.
LAST WEEK'S SUMMARY
📈 Slightly more leading indicators improved than worsened. 6 improved, 5 worsened, and 1 was unchanged. The 30-year mortgage rate eased to 7.17% (from 7.33%), but Kalshi shows an 80% chance the Fed hikes rates 25 bps in December. Purchase applications are down 19% from a year ago, and the S&P 500 fell 2.68% on the week to close at 7,376.86.
🏡 Buyers have more leverage as supply builds. October months of supply hit 3.4, the highest since the Great Recession period, and homes took 36 days to sell versus 32 last year.
💰 Prices are softer than last year. The October median sales price was $775,000 versus $793,000 a year ago (-2.3%), and homes sold for 98.6% of list price versus 99.3%. The gap between median list and sales price was $24,925 (3.1%).
💼 Local layoff claims remain low. Weekly initial claims in King (1,116), Pierce (738), and Snohomish (523) are 80–83% below their historical medians, with King and Pierce down from the prior week and Snohomish up 3.0%. Two new WARN notices were filed last week, affecting 186 workers (Amazon, 95; Seattle Marriott Redmond, 91).
📰 Last week's economic reports were mostly positive. 7 beat expectations, 5 missed, and 3 were neutral for housing. October payrolls rose 165,000 (forecast 59,000), unemployment fell to 4.1%, and wages grew 3.1% year over year, while construction spending fell 1.9%. MBA's Mike Fratantoni expects the Fed to hike in December and again in the first quarter of 2027.
🏛️ Freddie Mac is easing rental income rules for 2- to 4-unit homes and ADUs. Under Bulletin 2026-15, buyers whose own income qualifies them no longer need leases on the other units. When rent is needed, appraisal market rent can count, with ADU income capped at 30% of qualifying income. Fannie Mae (SEL-2026-10) now also allows condo units with ADUs.
WHAT THE EXPERTS SAID
"The job market remained resilient in October with a gain of 165,000 jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1 percent. Job growth for the prior two months was revised higher by a combined 84,000, showing an acceleration of job growth in this past three months to an average pace of 137,000 relative to the 48,000 average over the past year.
"Job growth broadened somewhat in October with gains in professional services, transportation and warehousing, and manufacturing as well as health care, which has been a steady contributor over the past several months. Wage growth increased slightly to 3.1 percent over the past year.
"While the headline unemployment rate decreased, some of this was due to individuals taking part-time work when they would have preferred a full-time position. The U-6, which more broadly captures underemployment, increased to 7.9 percent from 7.6 percent the prior month. Individuals who have lost jobs are also finding a difficult time getting back in, as the median and average length of unemployment spells are increasing.
"A resilient job market, combined with inflation that is still too high, is likely to lead the FOMC to hike rates in December. MBA anticipates another hike as well in the first quarter of 2027."
— Mike Fratantoni, SVP and Chief Economist, MBA
ABSORPTION - MONTHS OF SUPPLY
Months of Supply means the amount of time, based on current demand, it would take to sell all available homes on the market. As of October 2026, there's 3.4 months of supply - the highest levels we've seen since the great recession.
King, Pierce & Snohomish
Single-Family *Resale 
*Resale excludes waterfront & new construction
MEDIAN SALES PRICE
King, Pierce, & Snohomish
Single-Family Resale
MEDIAN PRICE SPREAD
King, Pierce & Snohomish
Single-Family Resale
October spread: $24,925 between median list price ($799,925) and median sales price ($775,000)
DAYS ON MARKET
King, Pierce & Snohomish
Single-Family Resale
SALES PRICE TO LIST PRICE RATIO
The Sales Price to List Price Ratio represents the difference between what the house sold for versus what it was listed for.
King, Pierce & Snohomish
Single-Family Resale
LOCAL JOB ECONOMY
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims — King, Pierce & Snohomish
WA STATE WARN NOTICES
Week of November 2 – 6, 2026 — New Filings (by Received Date)
Two new WARN notices were received by WA Employment Security Department during the week of Nov 2–6, 2026, affecting 186 workers (Amazon, 95; Seattle Marriott Redmond, 91) — a permanent layoff and a permanent closure, with Amazon's spanning Sumner, Pasco, Bellevue, Redmond, Seattle and remote roles. The prior week (Oct 26–30) carried five new notices affecting 693 workers.
📋 Layoff Watch
Totals by layoff start date from the live WARN database:
November 2026: 14,548 workers
December 2026: 952 workers
January 2027: 194 workers
Source: WA Employment Security Department · WARN Database View full database
LOCAL JOB ECONOMY
September Initial Unemployment Claims — King, Pierce & Snohomish
What it means: Initial claims in September fell year-over-year across all three counties (King -2.4%, Pierce -12.8%, Snohomish -15.4%) and remain well below historical medians — down 26–35%. Compared with August, claims ticked up modestly (King +3.1%, Pierce +8.4%, Snohomish +4.3%), but new layoffs still run well below historical norms, signaling a tight local labor market.
Source: WA Employment Security Department · September 2026 (Claims)
LOCAL JOB ECONOMY
September Continued Unemployment Claims — King, Pierce & Snohomish
What it means: Continued claims improved again in September. Pierce and Snohomish remain below their historical medians (down 4.0% and 2.4%), while King County is still above at +13.31%, though that gap narrowed from +18.67% in August. All three counties improved year-over-year (King -5.4%, Pierce -2.1%, Snohomish -4.3%), extending the positive trend from August.
Source: WA Employment Security Department · September 2026 (Claims)
LOCAL JOB ECONOMY
Monthly Unemployment Rate — King, Pierce & Snohomish
Month-over-Month: July 2026 → August 2026 (Not Seasonally Adjusted, LAUS)
Regional & State Context (Seasonally Adjusted)
What it means: Unemployment rates fell in all three counties from July to August — Pierce the most (-30 bps), King and Snohomish -20 bps each — and are flat versus a year ago (King 4.7%, Pierce 5.1%, Snohomish 4.8%). The seasonally adjusted rate also kept easing: the Seattle/Tacoma/Bellevue MSA and Washington State both slipped 10 bps in August and another 10 bps in September, to 4.8%.
Source: WA Employment Security Department · BLS LAUS · July–September 2026 (Unemployment Rate)
LAST WEEK'S MACROECONOMIC DATA
Sources: Consensus forecasts and actuals via MarketWatch U.S. Economic Calendar (Dow Jones) · Week of November 2 – 6, 2026
Week of November 2 – 6, 2026
This week: 7 Better Than Expected · 5 Worse Than Expected · 3 Neutral
✅ Better Than Expected (Good for Housing & Affordability)
❌ Worse Than Expected (Bad for Housing & Affordability)
➡️ Neutral (Little Direct Impact on Housing & Affordability)
🏠 Top 3 Reports Buyers & Sellers Should Watch This Week (Nov 9–13)
📈 CPI (Oct) — Tue, Nov. 10, 8:30 AM ET. Forecast 0.3% M/M (prior 0.6%) and 3.9% Y/Y (prior 3.7%); core forecast 0.2% M/M and 2.7% Y/Y. Inflation is the biggest driver of Fed rate expectations and mortgage rates — a hotter print keeps borrowing costs elevated and hurts affordability.
1.🏡 Existing Home Sales (Oct) — Thu, Nov. 12, 10:00 AM ET. Forecast 3.8M annualized (prior 4.0M). The most direct read on buyer demand and closed sales activity; a miss would signal rates are continuing to sideline buyers.
2.🏭 PPI (Oct) — Fri, Nov. 13, 8:30 AM ET. Forecast 0.4% M/M (prior 1.3%) and 6.6% Y/Y (prior 6.3%); ex-food & energy 0.3% M/M. A pipeline inflation signal that feeds into Fed policy expectations and building-material costs.
3.
LEADING INDICATORS
This week: 6 Improved · 5 Worsened · 1 Unchanged
20/80
Fed Rate Odds (December FOMC)
Kalshi: 20% hold, 80% chance of a 25 bp hike. Hold odds up from 19% last week — an improvement.
0.35%
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Unchanged from 0.35% last week — 10yr–2yr spread remains positive at +0.35% (un-inverted), reflecting policy normalization and firm long yields rather than imminent recessionary easing.
0.67%
10-Yr / 3-Mo Yield Spread
Down 16 bps from 0.83% last week — curve flattened, a worsening.
0.43%
Corporate Bond Spread (BAA-AAA)
Down 4 bps from 0.47% last week — credit spreads narrowed, an improvement.
0.91%
10-Yr Term Premium
Down 9 bps from 1.00% last week — an improvement.
2.17%
5-Yr, 5-Yr Forward Inflation Expectation Rate
Down 3 bps from 2.20% last week — an improvement.
3.32%
Real-Time Inflation
Up 31 bps from 3.01% last week, further above the Fed's 2% target — a worsening.
7.17%
30-Yr Mortgage Rate
Down 16 bps from 7.33% last week — an improvement.
231 bps
30-yr / 10-yr Spread
Down from 234 bps last week. 61 bps above the ~170 bps historical average, but the spread narrowed — an improvement.
-1.2%
MBA Market Composite Index WoW Change
Down 1.2% WoW (SA), a smaller drop than -5.3% last week. Unadjusted: -2% WoW (vs -5% last week) — still a decline, a worsening.
-19% YoY
MBA Purchase Index
Purchase Index down 2% WoW SA and 4% unadjusted (vs -7% for both last week); YoY -19% vs -18% last week — a worsening. Refi Index up 0.1% WoW (vs -2% last week) and 60% lower YoY (vs 59%).
7,376.86
S&P 500 Performance
Closed at 7,376.86 on Nov 6, down 3.24% from the 7,623.68 close in last week's update (Oct 23). YTD +7.76% (vs +11.37%); YoY +9.63% (vs +13.14%) — a worsening.
POLICY WATCH
🏛️ Lending & Underwriting Changes (King, Pierce, Snohomish)
Freddie Mac Eases 2- to 4-Unit and ADU Rental Income Requirements (Bulletin 2026-15)
Status: 🟢 Published | Source: Freddie Mac Bulletin 2026-15 / Single-Family Seller/Servicer Guide Chapter 5306 / Fannie Mae Announcement SEL-2026-10 | Focus: 2- to 4-Unit & ADU Rental Income Qualification
1. What Changed
Freddie Mac Bulletin 2026-15 and Chapter 5306 of the Single-Family Seller/Servicer Guide update how rental income is documented for 2- to 4-unit properties and Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs), alongside parallel updates from Fannie Mae (Announcement SEL-2026-10). Previously, underwriters often demanded executed leases, rent rolls, or security deposit documentation for secondary units even when a buyer's own income easily covered the full monthly payment (principal, interest, taxes, insurance, and HOA dues). The updates cover two areas: when rental income is NOT needed to qualify, and how ADU rental income is calculated when it IS needed.
2. Parameters
1
Rental Income Not Needed
If the buyer's personal qualifying income covers the full housing payment (DTI under maximum thresholds without counting tenant rent), lenders no longer need to gather, verify, or condition for leases on the other units.
2
Subject Investment Properties
Lease verification hurdles at closing are eliminated if the investor qualifies on their own financial strength without counting projected gross rent.
3
Why It Matters
Removes delayed closings and pipeline friction from missing leases, non-cooperative tenants during escrow, or vacant duplex/triplex/fourplex units at purchase.
4
Appraisal-Based Documentation
When rental income is required, lenders can rely on the appraisal (Form 1025 for small multifamily; Form 1007 Single-Family Comparable Rent Schedule for 1-unit homes with an ADU) instead of an active signed 12-month lease and cleared security deposits before funding. Market rent applies the standard 75% calculation (25% vacancy/maintenance factor).
5
ADUs Allowed
Freddie Mac permits an ADU on 1-, 2-, and 3-unit properties, provided local zoning permits it or it meets legal non-conforming standards (detached backyard cottages, basement suites, DADUs).
6
30% Income Cap
For a 1-unit primary residence, net qualifying ADU rent cannot exceed 30% of the borrower's total qualifying income.
7
Appraisal Comps
The appraisal must include at least three comparable rental properties, and at least one must be an actual rented ADU of similar size, utility, and privacy level.
8
Fannie Mae Condo ADUs (SEL-2026-10)
Conforming purchase/refinance financing is now eligible for individual condo units with attached or detached ADUs, removing a roadblock where an ADU could make an entire condo project ineligible.
3. Takeaway for Clients & Agents
House hackers & multigenerational buyers: Buyers of a duplex, triplex, or home with an ADU who already have strong W-2 or self-employed income no longer face closings held up waiting for leases on other units.
Infill & ADU builders: Properties with legally permitted DADUs/mother-in-law units can be underwritten using the appraiser's market rent schedule up to the 30% income threshold, broadening the pool of buyers who can qualify.
Source: Freddie Mac Bulletin 2026-15 / Single-Family Seller/Servicer Guide Chapter 5306 / Fannie Mae Announcement SEL-2026-10
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and summarizes Freddie Mac Bulletin 2026-15, Guide Chapter 5306, and Fannie Mae SEL-2026-10. Lender requirements, overlays, and implementation details may vary and change. I am a real estate professional, not a licensed lender or underwriter. Please consult a mortgage professional for guidance specific to your situation.
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Aaron Lawrenson
Managing Broker
📞 425.919.3611 | ✉️ [email protected]
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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or legal advice. Data sourced from MLS, Altos Research, and public economic releases. © 2025 All rights reserved.