Weekly Housing & Macro Update

Week 31 Update
Weekly Housing & Macro Update
Regional market trends, leading indicators, and last week's macroeconomic signals
Delivered weekly by your trusted real estate advisor — cutting through the noise with real data, real context, and real insight for buyers, sellers, and investors in the greater Seattle area.
What the Experts Are Saying
"Nominal home price declines are really rare in America... The notion that nominal home price crashing in America is like a normal thing because of one period of time in history which had a major credit boom, credit bust, massive inventory, distress sales, underwater mortgages—none of that's here."
— Logan Mohtashami, Lead Housing Analyst at HousingWire
Despite rising rates and softening demand, the conditions that caused the 2008 crash — credit excess, distressed inventory, underwater mortgages — are simply not present today. Locally, the $130,000 gap between list and pending prices signals a repricing, not a collapse. Truflation is at 2.23% and rising, the Fed is now more likely than not to hike in September (58% Kalshi, 60% Polymarket), and mortgage rates at 6.83% are compressing affordability — but none of this is the structural unraveling that precedes a crash. For buyers waiting for prices to fall dramatically: the data doesn't support that thesis. For sellers: the market is correcting to reality, not cratering.
Source: Logan Mohtashami · Lead Housing Analyst, HousingWire · 2026
Leading Indicators
This week: 3 Improved · 8 Worsened · 2 Unchanged · 3 New
0.47%
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Up 11 bps from 0.36% last week — the curve steepened notably, signaling markets continue to price out near-term recession risk.
0.92%
10-Yr / 3-Mo Yield Spread
Up 19 bps from 0.73% last week — the spread widened notably, further confirming the yield curve is not inverted on this measure and that near-term recession risk continues to fade.
0.41%
Corporate Bond Spread (BAA-AAA)
Unchanged at 0.41% from last week — credit markets remain calm, with no signs of stress or widening default risk.
0.83%
10-Yr Term Premium
Up 6 bps from 0.77% last week — the term premium continues to drift higher, adding independent upward pressure on mortgage rates beyond what Fed policy alone would dictate.
6.83%
30-Yr Mortgage Rate
Up 2 bps from 6.81% last week — a modest continuation of the three-week climb from 6.53%, keeping rates firmly in the upper-6% range.
210 bps
30-yr / 10-yr Spread
Down 3 bps from 213 bps last week as the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.73%. Still well above the historical norm of ~150 bps.
2.23%
Real-Time Inflation
Up 12 bps from 2.11% last week — the largest single-week jump in recent months, now 23 bps above the Fed's 2% target.
2.30%
5-Yr Inflation Expectation
Up 2 bps from 2.28% last week — persistent upward drift adds to a more cautious inflation picture ahead of the September FOMC.
2.28%
10-Yr Inflation Expectation
Up 4 bps from 2.24% last week — a steady four-week upward trend that may begin to influence Fed communication.
+1.9%
MBA Market Composite Index
Up 1.9% WoW (SA), matching last week's gain. Refi Index fell 2% WoW but is +7% YoY.
+0.2%
MBA Purchase Index
Purchase apps up 6% WoW (SA and unadjusted). YoY comparison held steady at +0.2% vs. the same week in 2025.
7,489.72
S&P 500 Performance
Closed at 7,489.72 on July 31, up +1.05% from 7,411.98 last week, snapping a two-week losing streak. YTD +8.9%; YoY +18.1% vs. 6,339.39 on July 31, 2025.
58% Hike
Fed Rate Odds (September FOMC)
Kalshi: 58% chance of a 25 bps hike in September. Polymarket: 60% chance. A sharp shift from last week's 74% hold probability.
Local Job Economy
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims — King, Pierce & Snohomish
What it means: All three counties declined week-over-week — King (1,184→1,107), Pierce (591→580), and Snohomish (443→446, up slightly). All three remain dramatically below historical medians — down 83–85% — continuing to signal an exceptionally tight local labor market.
Local Job Economy
Monthly Initial Unemployment Claims — King, Pierce & Snohomish
What it means: Initial claims in June rose modestly year-over-year across all three counties (up 2–4%), but remain well below historical medians — down 20–32%. Snohomish continues to show the steepest gap below its median. New layoffs in the region remain low by historical standards.
Monthly Continued Unemployment Claims — King, Pierce & Snohomish
What it means: Continued claims remain above historical medians in all three counties, though the gap has narrowed significantly — King is now only 17% above median, while Pierce and Snohomish are just 2–3% above. All three counties improved year-over-year (down 2–5%), continuing the gradual easing trend from May.
Monthly Unemployment Rate — King, Pierce & Snohomish
May 2026 (vs. April 2026)
What it means: All three counties saw unemployment rates fall in May, and employers added jobs across the board — a combined 18,200 new payroll positions in a single month. King County alone added 13,600 jobs and now supports nearly 1.5 million total payroll positions. These figures reinforce what the weekly initial claims data has been signaling all year: the local labor market remains exceptionally strong, which continues to underpin housing demand even as affordability stays stretched.
Source: WA Employment Security Department · May 2026 (Unemployment Rate) · June 2026 (Claims)
WA State WARN Notices
Week of July 28 – August 1, 2026 — New Filings
Two new WARN notices were filed this week: No Meat Factory USA Inc (113 workers, Stanwood, permanent closure, received 7/28/2026) and Visa (70 workers, Bellevue, permanent layoff, received 7/31/2026).
📋 Layoff Watch
Totals by layoff start date from the live WARN database:
August 2026: 974 workers
September 2026: 829 workers
October 2026: 70 workers
The layoff pipeline for the next three months totals 1,873 workers. August carries 974 workers. September carries 829 workers, dominated by Microsoft's 605-person layoff in Redmond, plus INDUS Technology (120), Verizon (54), and PetVet Care Centers (50). October carries 70 workers — Visa's permanent layoff in Bellevue, the first October filing received.
Source: WA Employment Security Department · WARN Database · Retrieved August 1, 2026 · View full database
Policy Watch 
🏛️ Washington Tax Update: What ESB 6347 Means for WA Homeowners
Effective July 1, 2026
Status: ✅ Signed into Law | Effective July 1, 2026
1. The Main Points
1
Top Tax Rate Rolled Back
Washington's top estate tax rate drops from 35% back down to 20%, effective July 1, 2026.
2
$3M Baseline Exemption
Estates are taxed on assets exceeding $3,000,000 per individual.
3
Reversed 2025 Spike
Reverses the temporary high-tax rates passed in 2025.
2. Why This Matters to You
1
Home Equity Adds Up Fast
"Estate value" includes everything — your primary home, investment real estate, 401(k)s, bank accounts, and life insurance.
2
Local Real Estate Exposure
With Puget Sound property values, many local homeowners unknowingly cross the $3M threshold.
3
Preventing Forced Sales
Estate taxes are due within 9 months of death. Knowing your threshold helps families avoid having to quickly sell property to cover state tax bills.
3. What You Should Do
Tally your gross net worth (property + savings + insurance).
If your assets approach or exceed $3M, review your estate plan or trust structure.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. I am a real estate professional, not a licensed CPA, financial advisor, or estate attorney. Please consult with your CPA or financial planner to evaluate how this law applies to your specific situation.
This Week at a Glance — Regional Housing Data
Here's your 60-second read on where the market stands right now for the week of August 1, 2026. The data below tells a consistent story: buyers have leverage, sellers need to price to reality. Read on for the full breakdown with charts and macro data.
📉 Absorption Rate
WoW: -1.00%
YTD: -9.99%
YoY: -10.39%
💰 Price Spread (List vs. Pending)
Median List Price WoW: -1.08%
Median List Price YTD: +7.77%
Median List Price YoY: -0.01%
Median Pending Price WoW: -0.49%
Median Pending Price YTD: +2.75%
Median Pending Price YoY: -4.23%
Spread: -$130,000 (-14.21%)
📆 Days on Market
WoW: Active 35 days unchanged; Pending 28 days unchanged
YTD: Active peaked at 77 days in late January/February, now 35 (-42 days)
🏷️ Price Reductions
WoW: +1.70%
YTD: -14.76%
YoY: +8.84%
🔥🧊 Hottest & Coldest City
Hottest: Mountlake Terrace, WA
Coldest: Medina, WA
📊 Price Segment Ranking
Fourth/Bottom tier 🔥
1.Third/Lower tier
2.First/Top tier
3.Second/Upper tier 🧊
4.
Market Data Graphs
The following five charts track the most critical weekly indicators for our regional market. Updated each week with real-time Altos Research data.
Absorption Rate
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
YTD Absorption Rate by Price Segments
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
Median List Price vs Median Pending Price
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
New Listing Median List Price vs New Pending Median Price
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
Median Days on Market
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
% Price Decreased
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
Hottest & Coldest Cities — King, Pierce & Snohomish
Ranked by absorption rate (single-family, 3-month moving average). Data as of August 1, 2026. Source: Altos Research.
🔥 10 Hottest Cities
🧊 10 Coldest Cities
Last Week's Macroeconomic Data
Source: MarketWatch U.S. Economic Calendar · Week of July 27–31, 2026
Week of July 27–31, 2026
This week: 4 Good · 4 Bad · 2 Neutral
Good Surprises
Bad Surprises
Neutral
🔍 This Week's Top Reports to Watch
#1 — U.S. Employment Report (July)
When: Friday, Aug. 7 · 8:30am ET
Forecast: 85,000 jobs | Unemployment: 4.3% | Hourly wages: +0.3%
Why it matters: The most important report of the week. A strong jobs number keeps the Fed on hold longer, sustaining upward pressure on mortgage rates. A miss could accelerate rate cut expectations and push rates lower.
#2 — ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI
When: Monday, Aug. 3 (Manufacturing) · Wednesday, Aug. 5 (Services) · 10:00am ET
Forecast: Manufacturing 54.0% | Services 54.4%
Why it matters: Back-to-back reads on economic activity. Strong services data supports housing demand; a manufacturing miss adds to softening concerns.
#3 — Initial Jobless Claims (Aug. 1)
When: Thursday, Aug. 6 · 8:30am ET
Forecast: 200,000 | Previous: 197,000
Why it matters: Weekly labor market pulse check. A reading above 200K would signal the labor market is beginning to crack — a key input for the Fed's September decision and mortgage rate direction.
Key Takeaways
FOR BUYERS — What does this mean for someone trying to buy a home right now?
Mortgage rates closed last week at 6.83% — up from 6.81% the prior week and 6.53% just three weeks ago. Three straight weeks of increases. Borrowing money to buy a home is getting more expensive, week by week.
In real dollars: on a $785,000 loan (the current median pending price locally), the cumulative move from 6.53% to 6.83% over three weeks adds roughly $150/month to your payment compared to a month ago. That's $1,800/year more — just from three weeks of rate drift.
The Fed (the central bank that influences interest rates) held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50–3.75% at its July 29th meeting. But here's the big shift: prediction markets now show a 58% chance the Fed hikes 25 basis points (bps) at the September meeting (Kalshi), with Polymarket at 60%. Just the prior week, markets were pricing a 74% chance of a hold. That's a dramatic one-week reversal driven by rising inflation. If the Fed hikes in September, mortgage rates could push toward 7%.
Locally, buyers still have real leverage. Homes are listed at a median of $915,000, but buyers are actually paying around $785,000 — a gap of $130,000 (14.21%). Sellers are still asking more than the market will bear. Homes are sitting on the market for 35 days (active listings) and 28 days (pending). That's not a fast market — you have time to be thoughtful and negotiate.
The most affordable price segment (bottom/fourth tier) is the hottest part of the local market right now. If that's your range, move faster and come in stronger. The second/upper tier is the coldest — most negotiating room lives there.
Nationally, inventory rose to 865,233 homes — more choices than a month ago. But mortgage applications for purchases jumped 6% week-over-week and are up 0.2% year-over-year. Other buyers are still active. Don't assume you have no competition.
One more reason local demand isn't collapsing: weekly unemployment claims in King (1,107), Pierce (580), and Snohomish (446) counties are running 82–85% below historical medians. The people who want to buy homes here mostly still have jobs. That keeps demand resilient even as rates rise.
FOR SELLERS — What does this mean for someone trying to sell?
Rates at 6.83% — up again. Every rate increase shrinks the pool of buyers who can qualify for your home. A buyer who could afford your home at 6.53% three weeks ago may no longer qualify today.
The $130,000 gap (14.21%) between what sellers are asking ($915,000 median list) and what buyers are actually paying ($785,000 median pending) is the market sending a clear signal: list price is not sale price right now. New listing prices are also slipping — the median new listing came in at $850,000 last week, down from $875,000 a month ago.
Price reductions are rising. 37.05% of local listings have had a recent price cut — up 1.70% from the prior week and up 8.84% year-over-year. Nationally, 40.64% of listings have had a price cut. Price reductions are the new normal, not the exception. If you're not priced right on day one, you'll likely join that group.
The absorption rate — a measure of how fast homes are selling relative to available supply — is down 10.39% year-over-year and down 1.00% from the prior week. The market is slowing. The window of seller leverage from 2024 and early 2025 has closed.
Watch the WARN layoff pipeline (advance notices employers must legally file before large layoffs). 1,873 workers are scheduled for layoffs over the next three months: 974 in August, 829 in September (led by Microsoft's 605-person Redmond layoff), and 70 in October (Visa, Bellevue). These are advance notices — not all result in actual job losses — but they signal the labor market tailwind may soften heading into fall, which can weigh on buyer confidence and purchasing power.
One policy item worth knowing: ESB 6347 (signed into law, effective July 1, 2026) rolled Washington's top estate tax rate back from 35% to 20%, with a $3M per-person exemption. With Puget Sound home values, many local homeowners unknowingly cross that threshold when you add up home equity, retirement accounts, and life insurance. Estate taxes are due within 9 months of death — families who haven't planned ahead can be forced to sell property quickly to cover the bill. If your net worth is approaching $3M, talk to your CPA or estate attorney now.
BOTTOM LINE — The one-paragraph summary.
Rates ticked up again to 6.83%, but the bigger story is the Fed: markets flipped from a 74% chance of a September hold to a 58–60% chance of a 25 bps hike in one week — driven by rising inflation. Real-time inflation (Truflation) jumped to 2.23% — the largest single-week move in recent months — and both 5-year (2.30%) and 10-year (2.28%) inflation expectations are drifting higher. The 10-year term premium rose to 0.83% (up from 0.77%), meaning bond investors are demanding more compensation for holding long-term debt — adding upward pressure on mortgage rates that has nothing to do with the Fed. Last week's macro scorecard: 4 Good · 4 Bad · 2 Neutral — Core PCE came in cooler than expected (good), but GDP Q2 missed at 1.5% vs. 1.8% and Consumer Confidence missed at 90.8 vs. 92.0 (both bad). The S&P 500 closed at 7,489.72 — up 1.05% for the week, snapping a two-week losing streak — YTD +8.9%, YoY +18.1%. The yield curve is positive at 0.47% (10Y-2Y) and 0.92% (10Y-3Mo), and corporate bond spreads remain tight at 0.41% — none of these are flashing recession. Locally in one sentence: buyers have real negotiating leverage right now (especially in the luxury tier), sellers need to price to where the market actually is, and the next six weeks of inflation data will determine whether mortgage rates stay near 7% or finally start to ease.
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Aaron Lawrenson
Managing Broker
📞 425.919.3611 | ✉️ [email protected]
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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or legal advice. Data sourced from MLS, Altos Research, and public economic releases. © 2025 All rights reserved.