Weekly Housing & Macro Update

Week 25 Update
Weekly Housing & Macro Update
Regional market trends, leading indicators, and last week's macroeconomic signals
Delivered weekly by your trusted real estate advisor — cutting through the noise with real data, real context, and real insight for buyers, sellers, and investors in the greater Seattle area.
What the Experts Are Saying
In his most recent podcast, Mark Zandi (Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics), and the Inside Economics team, had a great conversation with Claudia Sahm (Chief Economist of New Century Advisors and former Fed economist) about the new Fed regime.
"If you go back to the last meeting six weeks ago, they had a bias towards easing... This time the statement says nothing... but we know they're biased towards rate increases because of the dot plot... It was a pretty big swing in terms of the number of Fed members saying, 'Hey, now the next move is going to be a rate increase.'" — Mark Zandi, Chief Economist, Moody's Analytics
Source: Moody's Analytics · Mark Zandi · June 2026
Leading Indicators
This week: 5 Improved · 4 Worsened · 2 Unchanged
0.27%
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Down 12 bps from 0.39% last week — the yield curve flattened notably, giving back the prior week's steepening. The narrowing spread signals renewed caution about the growth outlook, though the curve remains in positive territory and has not inverted.
6.58%
30-Yr Mortgage Rate
Held at 6.58% this week — unchanged from last week. Rates remain in the upper-6% range, continuing to weigh on affordability. Buyers are still waiting for a meaningful pullback before jumping back in.
213 bps
30-yr / 10-yr Spread
Down 2 bps from 215 bps last week — the spread narrowed slightly but remains well above the historical norm of ~150 bps. The persistent gap continues to add meaningful upward pressure to mortgage pricing relative to Treasury yields.
1.84%
Real-Time Inflation
Down 16 bps from 2.00% last week — Truflation continues to drift further below the Fed's 2% target, a constructive development for rate policy. Sustained sub-2% readings could give policymakers more flexibility, though they'll want confirmation before acting.
2.23%
5-Yr Inflation Expectation
Down 1 bp from 2.24% last week — medium-term inflation expectations edged slightly lower, remaining well-anchored near the Fed's target horizon. A quiet positive that reinforces the benign inflation narrative.
2.25%
10-Yr Inflation Expectation
Down 13 bps from 2.38% last week — long-run expectations moved notably lower and are now very close to the Fed's 2% target. The continued drift downward is a meaningful positive, suggesting markets are not pricing in a sustained inflation resurgence.
-3.8%
MBA Market Composite Index
The Market Composite Index decreased 3.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier, per the MBA's Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. A pullback after the prior week's strong surge — overall application volume softened as rates had not yet fully reflected last week's decline.
+3% YoY
MBA Purchase Index
Purchase applications were down 5% week-over-week compared with the previous week, a modest pullback after recent strength. The more meaningful signal is the year-over-year comparison — demand is running 3% above this same week in 2025, confirming that underlying buyer activity is holding up despite elevated rates.
7,500.58
S&P 500 Performance
Rose 1.08% (+80.48 points) on June 18, 2026, recovering sharply from Wednesday's post-FOMC selloff. The rally was led by semiconductor stocks after President Trump announced Intel will make chips for Apple domestically. YTD the index is up +9.6% (+655.08 points). Year-over-year the index is up approximately +24.5%. Markets are closed Friday for Juneteenth.
3.50–3.75%
Fed Funds Rate
The Fed held the target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% at last week's June 17 FOMC meeting. The Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections removed expected rate cuts for 2026 and raised inflation forecasts, signaling a higher-for-longer stance. Markets sold off Wednesday on the hawkish tone before recovering Thursday.
77% Hold
Fed Rate Odds (June 17, 2026)
Per Kalshi, markets are pricing a 77% probability the Fed holds rates unchanged at the July FOMC meeting. The remaining odds reflect a small but non-trivial chance of a move, consistent with the Fed's data-dependent posture following last week's hawkish pause.
Local Job Economy
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims — King, Pierce & Snohomish
What it means: Initial unemployment claims in Week 23 remain dramatically below historical medians across all three counties — down 80–85% — continuing to signal an exceptionally tight local labor market. Claims ticked down slightly from last week (King: 1,316→1,267, Pierce: 693→643, Snohomish: 469→450), reinforcing that very few new layoffs are occurring in the region.
Local Job Economy
Monthly Initial Unemployment Claims — King, Pierce & Snohomish
What it means: Initial unemployment claims in May fell sharply below historical medians across all three counties — down 25–35% — and also declined year-over-year. Snohomish County saw the steepest drop at nearly 35% below its historical median. This points to a labor market with fewer new layoffs than typical, a continued positive signal for the region.
Monthly Continued Unemployment Claims — King, Pierce & Snohomish
What it means: Continued claims remain elevated above historical medians across all three counties, meaning people who lose jobs are still taking longer to find new work than in prior cycles. However, all three counties showed year-over-year improvement in May, suggesting the situation is gradually easing.
Source: WA Employment Security Department · May 2026
WA State WARN Notices
Week of June 15–19, 2026
📋 Summer Pipeline Watch
June 2026: 61 workers across 1 employer
July 2026: 2,304 workers across 8 employers
August 2026: 604 workers across 3 employers
December 2026: 124 workers across 1 employer
One new WARN notice was filed this week — First Student, Inc. (111 workers, Seattle) with an August 17 effective date, bringing the August pipeline to 604 workers across 3 employers. July remains the heaviest month with 2,304 workers across 8 employers, led by Meta's 1,395-person layoff in King County. June's pipeline is light at just 61 workers (Starbucks), with an effective date of June 20.
Source: WA Employment Security Department · WARN Database · Retrieved June 22, 2026
Washington State Policy Watch 
HB 2304 — "Stacked Flats" Condo Reform (Small Builders)
Status: ✅ Enacted into Law
What the Law Does
Building condos in Washington has historically carried massive legal and liability risks due to construction defect laws, which kept developers focused strictly on townhomes or single-family builds. HB 2304 is a major breakthrough for "middle housing."
For small-scale condo projects (12 or fewer units and 4 or fewer stories), developers can now bypass standard complex liability laws by offering an insurance-backed, express 2-10 warranty:
1 year for workmanship
2 years for mechanical systems
10 years for structural defects
Market Implications
Reduced Development Risk
Insurance-backed warranty replaces complex liability exposure, making small condo projects financially viable for the first time in years.
Attainable Middle Housing
Opens the door for small builders to construct 'stacked flats' — an affordable multi-family product type that has been largely absent from the market.
This Week at a Glance — Regional Housing Data
Here's your 60-second read on where the market stands right now for the week of June 22, 2026. The data below tells a consistent story: buyers have leverage, sellers need to price to reality. Read on for the full breakdown with charts and macro data.
📉 Absorption Rate
WoW: -2.00%
YTD: -1.32%
YoY: -11.05%
💰 Price Spread (List vs. Pending)
WoW: List +0.16% · Pending 0%
YTD: List +9.43% · Pending +3.40%
New Listings YTD: List +14.38% · Pending +6.68%
Gap: List vs. Pending -14.96% · New List vs. New Pending -8.69%
Gap: Median List vs. New Listing List -5.81% · Median Pending vs. New Pending +1.14%
📆 Days on Market
WoW: Active 35 days unchanged; Pending 28 days (up from 21)
YTD: Active peaked at 77 days in late January/February, now 35 (-42 days)
🏷️ Price Reductions
WoW: +2.94%
YTD: -19.48%
YoY: +14.12%
🔥🧊 Hottest & Coldest City
Hottest: Dupont, WA
Coldest: Snoqualmie Pass, WA
📊 Price Segment Ranking
Fourth/Bottom tier 🔥
Third/Lower tier
Second/Upper tier
First/Top tier 🧊
Market Data Graphs
The following five charts track the most critical weekly indicators for our regional market. Updated each week with real-time Altos Research data.
Absorption Rate
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
YTD Absorption Rate by Price Segments
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
Median List Price vs Median Pending Price
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
New Listing Median List Price vs New Pending Median Price
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
Median Days on Market
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
% Price Decreased
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
Hottest & Coldest Cities — King, Pierce & Snohomish
Ranked by absorption rate (single-family, 3-month moving average). Data as of June 22, 2026. Source: Altos Research.
🔥 10 Hottest Cities
🧊 10 Coldest Cities
Dupont surges to #1 hottest with the strongest absorption rate in the region, joined by Mountlake Terrace and Lake Forest Park rounding out the top 3. Shoreline, Granite Falls, and North Bend are notable entrants in the top 6. Snoqualmie Pass holds as the coldest market, with Medina at #2. Fall City, Sammamish, and Kirkland are notable entrants on the coldest list. Data as of June 22, 2026. Source: Altos Research.
National Market Snapshot
Source: Altos Research · National, USA · June 22, 2026
$450,000
Median List Price
▲ $0
109
Avg Days on Market
▲ 0 days
37
Absorption Rate
▼ 0
830,939
Inventory
▲ 14,015
$434,900
Median Price of New Listings
▼ $100
56
Median Days on Market
▲ 0
$2,295
Median Rent
▲ $45
$217
$ Per Sq. Ft
▼ $0.23
This week's national market is holding steady on the surface, but the underlying signals show buyers gaining leverage and sellers needing tighter pricing discipline.
Prices and pace flat — The median list price held at $450,000 and median days on market stayed at 56 days. No movement on the headline numbers, but the calm is masking a shift beneath the surface.
New listing pricing slipping — The median new-list price dipped to $434,900 (down $100), reinforcing that fresh supply is coming on at market-clearing prices rather than aspirational ones.
Inventory rising — Active listings climbed to 830,939 from 816,924 week over week (+14,015), giving buyers meaningfully more choice heading into summer.
Seller concessions increasing — Price reductions jumped to 38.62% and relists ticked up to 9.19%, signaling more listings are missing the mark on initial pricing.
Bottom line: The market looks calm, but it's tilting toward buyers. Prices and pace are flat, yet more sellers are cutting prices and relisting — a clear sign that listings are coming in too high. Price sharply from day one.
Last Week's Macroeconomic Data
Each week I review the major economic data releases and categorize them by how they came in relative to forecasts. Here's how last week's data stacked up — and what it means for housing and interest rates.
Week of June 15–18, 2026
This week: 4 Good · 6 Bad · 4 Neutral
Good Surprises
Last week included several encouraging signs for housing and consumer demand. Retail sales beat expectations, pending home sales surged, and jobless claims remained stable.
Bad Surprises
The main disappointments were in manufacturing, housing construction, and import inflation. Housing starts fell well short of expectations, while both the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys softened.
Neutral
Several reports came in exactly as expected, while one import-price reading had no forecast available and is best treated as informational only.
The headline story this week was the FOMC meeting — Fed Chairman Warsh held rates steady and the press conference was closely watched for signals on the path forward. On the data side, the big miss was housing starts, which came in at just 1.17 million versus a 1.43 million forecast — a significant shortfall that signals builders are pulling back. Import prices also ran hotter than expected at 1.9%, adding to inflation concerns. The bright spots were retail sales, which beat handily at 0.9%, and pending home sales, which surged 3.8% versus a 1.0% forecast — a strong leading indicator for future closings. The manufacturing surveys (Empire State and Philly Fed) both disappointed, suggesting the industrial side of the economy is losing momentum. Overall, it was a mixed week with housing construction as the key concern.
Key Takeaways
For Buyers
Good news if you're trying to buy a home right now. The interest rate on a 30-year mortgage is holding flat at 6.58%, so your payment is not getting cheaper this week. But there are still a few good signs: inflation is cooling, retail sales beat expectations at 0.9% versus a 0.5% forecast, and pending home sales jumped 3.8% nationally against a 1.0% forecast. Year over year, the MBA Purchase Index is also up 3%, which means more people are buying than this time last year. Locally, buyers still have the upper hand in Seattle. Homes are sitting longer, price reductions are up 14.12% from a year ago, the gap between list and pending is 14.96%, and pending days on market are up to 28 days. Absorption is down 11.05% year over year, so the market is softer. The one exception is bottom-tier homes. Those are still the most competitive, so if that's your target, move fast.
For Sellers
It's still a tough week to be a seller. Mortgage rates held at 6.58%, so there was no rate relief to bring in more buyers. The average home in our area is listed at $929,000, but buyers are only paying around $790,000. That's a $139,000 gap. Homes priced around $875,000 are moving, but if you aim too high, your listing will probably sit. About one-third of active listings had to cut prices this week. Nationally, housing starts came in at just 1.17 million versus a 1.43 million forecast. That's a big miss and a sign builders may be pulling back, which could mean a little less new-construction competition for existing home sellers down the road. Mark Zandi's takeaway still stands: the Fed's next move looks more likely to be a rate hike than a cut. Bottom line: price it right from day one, or expect to sit and cut later anyway.
Bottom Line
Here's the big picture in simple terms. The Fed kept rates at 3.50–3.75% and sounded more hawkish, and Kalshi is pricing in a 77% chance the Fed holds steady in July. Mortgage rates also held at 6.58%, unchanged. Inflation is cooling, with Truflation at 1.84% and the 10-year breakeven at 2.25%, but the Fed wants more proof before it starts cutting. Import prices were hotter than expected at 1.9% versus a 1.1% forecast, which is one big reason the Fed is being careful. Locally, unemployment in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties is still 80–85% below historical medians, so people still have jobs and can buy homes. The stock market had a strong week too, with the S&P 500 at 7,500.58, up 9.6% year to date and 24.5% year over year. Simple playbook: if you're buying, negotiate hard. If you're selling, price it like a buyer, not like a dreamer.
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Aaron Lawrenson
Managing Broker
📞 425.919.3611 | ✉️ [email protected]
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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or legal advice. Data sourced from MLS, Altos Research, and public economic releases. © 2025 All rights reserved.