Weekly Housing & Macro Update

2026 Week 38 Update
Weekly Housing & Macro Update
Regional market trends, leading indicators, and last week's macroeconomic signals
Delivered weekly by your trusted real estate advisor — cutting through the noise with real data, real context, and real insight for buyers, sellers, and investors in the greater Seattle area.
What the Experts Are Saying
Why bond yields are higher? "First is economic strength... Second reason, competition for capital. The surge in capital expenditures which I referenced in my remarks is real and the so-called hyperscalers are out in the market raising funding and so the competition for capital is real... The third is geopolitics."
— Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair, September 2026 FOMC Press Conference
"I don't believe that we need to do harm to the labor markets to achieve our objective. I don't believe that the two parts of our mandate — price stability and full employment — are working at cross purposes over the medium term."
— Kevin Warsh, Federal Reserve Chair, September 2026 FOMC Press Conference
Leading Indicators
This week: 3 Improved · 10 Worsened · 0 Unchanged
50/50
Fed Rate Odds (September FOMC)
Kalshi: 50% hike, 50% hold. Hike odds down sharply from 84% last week — a significant dovish shift, an improvement.
0.25%
10Y-2Y Yield Spread
Down from 0.33% last week — curve flattened further, a worsening signal.
0.87%
10-Yr / 3-Mo Yield Spread
Down 2 bps from 0.89% last week — spread narrowed slightly, a mild worsening.
0.44%
Corporate Bond Spread (BAA-AAA)
Up 1 bp from 0.43% last week — credit markets tightened slightly, a mild negative signal.
0.96%
10-Yr Term Premium
Up 7 bps from 0.89% last week — continues to exert upward pressure on mortgage rates, a worsening.
2.35%
5-Yr Inflation Expectation
Up 3 bps from 2.32% last week — expectations drifting higher, a worsening.
2.33%
10-Yr Inflation Expectation
Down 3 bps from 2.36% last week — a modest improvement.
2.39%
Real-Time Inflation
Down 9 bps from 2.48% last week — still above the Fed's 2% target but moving in the right direction, an improvement.
7.20%
30-Yr Mortgage Rate
Up 8 bps from 7.12% last week — rates continuing to climb, a worsening.
221 bps
30-yr / 10-yr Spread
Up 5 bps from 216 bps last week. 10-yr Treasury at 4.99%; 30-yr mortgage at 7.20%. Well above the historical norm of ~170 bps. Spread widening is a worsening signal.
-4.1%
MBA Market Composite Index WoW Change
Down from -2.7% last week (SA). Unadjusted: -15% WoW. A worsening in overall application volume.
-19% YoY
MBA Purchase Index
Purchase apps down 1% WoW (SA), down 13% WoW unadjusted. YoY at -19% vs. same week one year ago — a worsening vs. last week's +4% YoY. Also note: Refi Index decreased 9% WoW and was 65% lower YoY.
7,650.50
S&P 500 Performance
Closed at 7,650.50 on September 18, up 0.17% on Friday. YTD +11.8%; YoY +14.8% vs. 6,664.36 on September 19, 2025. Down from 7,656.98 last week.
This Week at a Glance — Regional Housing Data
Here's your 60-second read on where the market stands right now for the week of September 21, 2026. The data below tells a consistent story: buyers have leverage, sellers need to price to reality. Read on for the full breakdown with charts and macro data.
📉 Absorption Rate
WoW: -1.81%
YTD: -17.23%
YoY: -12.27%
💰 Price Spread (List vs. Pending)
Median List Price YTD: +4.82%
Median Pending Price YTD: +1.96%
Median Pending Price YoY: -2.62%
List vs Pending Spread: -12.47%
Spread narrowed vs. -12.85% last week.
New Listing vs New Pending Spread: -4.90%
📆 Days on Market
WoW: Active unchanged at 49 days; Pending unchanged at 35 days
YTD: Active peaked at 77 days in late January/February, now 49
🏷️ Price Reductions
WoW: +1.09%
YTD: -1.45%
YoY: +5.15%
🔥🧊 Hottest & Coldest City
Hottest: Mountlake Terrace, WA
Coldest: Medina, WA
📊 Price Segment Ranking
Fourth/Bottom tier 🔥 
1.Third/Lower tier 
2.Second/Upper tier 
3.First/Top tier 🧊 
4.
Market Data Graphs
The following five charts track the most critical weekly indicators for our regional market. Updated each week with real-time Altos Research data.
Absorption Rate
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
YTD Absorption Rate by Price Segments
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
Median Pending Price
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
Median List Price vs Median Pending Price
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
New Listing Median List Price vs New Pending Median Price
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
Median Days on Market
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
% Price Decreased
Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma Single-Family (3-month moving average)
Hottest & Coldest Cities — King, Pierce & Snohomish
Ranked by absorption rate (single-family, 3-month moving average). Source: Altos Research · September 21, 2026.
🔥 10 Hottest Cities
🧊 10 Coldest Cities
National Housing Market — Weekly Snapshot
Source: Logan Mohtashami, Lead Housing Analyst · HousingWire · Week of September 21, 2026
890,303
Active Listings
Up from 873,978 last week. Inventory continues to build.
70 days
Median Days on Market
Unchanged from last week. Homes are taking longer to sell nationally.
$429,900
Median New-Listing Price
Up from $399,999 last week — sellers testing higher asking prices on new listings.
42.07%
Listings with Price Cuts
Price reductions remain widespread. Buyers still have leverage.
The overall median list price barely moved ($439,000 → $439,900), even as new-listing prices jumped. That gap tells the story: sellers are testing higher prices, but the market isn't rewarding them. Disciplined pricing and strong negotiation matter more than timing right now.
💡 Logan Mohtashami, Lead Housing Analyst at HousingWire, tracks national housing data weekly. His work focuses on housing inventory, demand trends, and mortgage rate impacts on the broader market.
Local Job Economy
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims — King, Pierce & Snohomish
What it means: King County fell WoW (1,359→1,207, ▼152), Pierce decreased (688→641, ▼47), and Snohomish dropped (560→486, ▼74). All three counties declined week-over-week and remain dramatically below historical medians — down 81–84% — continuing to signal an exceptionally tight local labor market.
Local Job Economy
August Initial Unemployment Claims — King, Pierce & Snohomish
What it means: Initial claims in August fell year-over-year across all three counties (down 1–10%), and remain well below historical medians — down 28–38%. All three counties continue to signal a tight local labor market with new layoffs running well below historical norms.
August Continued Unemployment Claims — King, Pierce & Snohomish
What it means: Continued claims improved notably in August. Pierce and Snohomish have now dipped below their historical medians (down 2.8% and 1.8% respectively), while King County remains above at +18.67%. All three counties improved year-over-year (down 4–7%), continuing the positive trend from July.
Monthly Unemployment Rate — King, Pierce & Snohomish
July 2026 (vs. July 2025)
What it means: Washington added a strong 21,100 jobs in July 2026 — the largest monthly gain since 2024 — which edged statewide unemployment down to 5.0% and the Seattle/Tacoma/Bellevue metro to 5.1%. However, that drop was largely mechanical: thousands of discouraged job seekers exited a shrinking labor force rather than an influx of new hiring, leaving broad underemployment elevated at 9.7%. The regional economy continues running in place.
Source: WA Employment Security Department · July 2026 (Unemployment Rate) · August 2026 (Claims)
WA State WARN Notices
Week of September 14–18, 2026 — New Filings
Nine new WARN notices were filed this week affecting 3,631 workers — all permanent layoffs. The largest filings are Blue Cascade Orchards (792 workers, multi-county), Columbia Reach Chiawana Orchards (570 workers), Pacific Ag Services (530 workers), and Sagemoor Group Management Services (443 workers) — all agricultural operations. Oracle America (359 workers, Seattle) is the notable tech filing this week. Up sharply from last week's 4 notices and 1,563 workers.
📋 Layoff Watch
Totals by layoff start date from the live WARN database:
September 2026: 77 workers
October 2026: 720 workers
November 2026: 7,682 workers
Source: WA Employment Security Department · WARN Database · Retrieved September 14, 2026 · View full database
Last Week's Macroeconomic Data
Source: BLS, Census Bureau, Federal Reserve, DOL · Week of September 15–19, 2026
Week of September 15–19, 2026
This week: 3 Better Than Expected · 5 Worse Than Expected · 1 Met Expectations
✅ Better Than Expected
❌ Worse Than Expected
➡️ Met Expectations
🏠 Top 3 Reports Buyers & Sellers Should Watch This Week (Sep 22–26)
🔑 New Home Sales — Thursday, Sep. 25 (10:00 AM ET): Prior: 607K SAAR. The most direct read on new housing demand. A beat signals buyers are still active despite 7%+ mortgage rates; a miss deepens affordability-driven demand concerns.
1.📊 U. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final — Friday, Sep. 26 (10:00 AM ET): Prior: 51.7. Buyer confidence near multi-year lows. A further decline signals worsening affordability anxiety and could dampen near-term purchase decisions.
2.💼 Weekly Jobless Claims — Thursday, Sep. 25 (8:30 AM ET): Prior: 196K. The labor market is the last pillar supporting housing demand. Any meaningful uptick signals cracks forming — watch closely.
3.
Source: BLS, Census Bureau, Federal Reserve, DOL, NY Fed · Week of September 15–19, 2026 · MarketWatch Economic Calendar
Policy Watch
🏗️ Seattle City Council — MHA Accelerator Legislation
Proposed Fee Reductions to Revive Stalled Residential Construction
Status: 🟡 Introduced | Source: Seattle City Council | Focus: Housing Supply & Affordability
1. What Is the MHA Accelerator?
Councilmember Dionne Foster (Position 9) introduced legislation on September 18, 2026 to reduce Mandatory Housing Affordability (MHA) in-lieu fees for residential projects — aimed at reversing a 95% drop in residential permit volume since 2020. The bill creates two tiers of fee relief tied to groundbreaking timelines and unit mix requirements.
2. Key Features
1
80% Fee Reduction (Vested Projects)
Currently vested projects that break ground within two years of enactment qualify for an 80% reduction in MHA in-lieu fees — the most aggressive relief tier in the bill.
2
60% Fee Reduction (New Projects)
New projects that vest by the end of 2027 and dedicate at least 25% of units to family-sized homes (2+ bedrooms) qualify for a 60% MHA fee reduction.
3
Family-Sized Housing Requirement
The 60% tier is conditioned on a minimum 25% share of 2+ bedroom units — a deliberate policy lever to address the shortage of family-sized housing in Seattle.
4
Companion Resolution
A paired resolution directs the city to evaluate future inclusionary zoning requirements for Neighborhood Residential parcels, signaling potential broader zoning reform ahead.
3. Why This Matters
1
For Sellers
More new supply coming to market — even if delayed — could increase competition in certain price bands. Sellers in neighborhoods targeted by upzoning should monitor how new inventory affects pricing over the next 2–3 years.
2
For Buyers
If the legislation succeeds in reviving permit activity, it could meaningfully expand the supply of family-sized homes in Seattle — a segment that has been critically undersupplied. Relief may be 2–4 years away given construction timelines.
3
For the Market
A 95% drop in residential permits since 2020 is a structural supply crisis. This legislation is one of the most direct attempts to address it. Whether it moves the needle depends on developer uptake and how quickly projects can break ground.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only and reflects legislation as introduced on September 18, 2026. Bill details, timelines, and final provisions may change as the legislation moves through the council process. I am a real estate professional, not a licensed attorney. Please consult your broker or legal counsel for guidance specific to your situation.
Key Takeaways
THE BOTTOM LINE
📊 The Fed just raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75–4.00% — the first hike since 2023. Most leading indicators moved in the wrong direction this week. Mortgage rates are now at 7.20%.
🏡 The local housing market still favors buyers. Homes are sitting on the market longer, price reductions are rising, and sellers are getting less than their asking price.
📉 The absorption rate — a measure of how fast homes are selling — is down 17.23% from the start of the year and 12.27% from a year ago. The market is slowing.
💰 The gap between what sellers are asking ($889,950 median list) and what buyers are actually paying ($779,000 median pending) is -12.47%. That spread narrowed slightly from last week.
🌡️ Mountlake Terrace is the hottest city in the region right now. Medina is the coldest. The bottom price tier is moving the fastest.
💼 Local unemployment claims in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties remain well below historical norms — the job market is still tight. That said, 9 new WARN notices were filed last week affecting 3,631 workers, mostly in agriculture and one notable tech layoff from Oracle in Seattle.
📰 Last week's economic data was a mixed bag. Retail sales and jobless claims beat expectations, but housing starts, building permits, and industrial production all missed.
🏛️ Seattle City Council introduced legislation to cut housing fees by up to 80% for stalled residential projects. If it passes, it could help bring more homes to market — but don't expect to see the impact for a few years.
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Aaron Lawrenson
Managing Broker
📞 425.919.3611 | ✉️ [email protected]
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This newsletter is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or legal advice. Data sourced from MLS, Altos Research, and public economic releases. © 2025 All rights reserved.